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The Preakness: Visualizing the Race

Posted by Webster Washington on 5/22/2016 4:47:27 AM

With the weather at Pimlico, the workouts have been spotty, with many horses getting in their main works before shipping.

Nyquist had his big work last Friday at Churchill, and has been jogging at Pimlico. Abiding Star breezed at Parx Racing in Philadelphia on Tuesday, and Lani has been working at Belmont Park in New York. Exaggerator has been taking two-mile jogs at Pimlico this week.

Awesome Speed got in a final workout on Tuesday at Pimlico and Cherry Wine worked at Churchill before shipping on Wednesday.

There has been little to report about other works.

A Sneak Peek

The gate positions were chosen Wednesday, but should not have a huge effect on the outcome of the race.

Visualizing the race is easier, though. Here's how I see things setting up:

There will be about four frontrunners at the beginning, with No. 2 Uncle Lino leading the way. No. 3 Nyquist will be among those in the second or third tier, and 5 Exaggerator will be in a group at the back. No. 11 Stradivari may move up and angle in to find a spot to save ground. Uncle Lino or someone at the front will set a fast pace. Others following will probably try to avoid the kickback on the wet track, so the field will spread out. No. 7 Collected and Uncle Lino should have the lead going into the final turn, with Nyquist and Stradivari there and the others farther back. Look for the frontrunners to fade and Nyquist to make a move in the stretch, maybe with Stradivari. Meanwhile, Exaggerator and 1 Cherry Wine will come on strong late. Then it will be a question of whether Stradivari and Collected can stay with Nyquist, and whether Exaggerator and Cherry Wine will have enough late run.

The Wager

I’m thinking Nyquist will outrun the rest to the wire. Exaggerator showed an awesome kick in the Santa Anita Derby slop, so I expect him to do the same here. I’m not sure Stradivari is ready for this, so I’ll put classier Collected down for the show. That’s a 3-5-7 trifecta, with 1 Cherry Wine or 11 Stradivari rounding out the super. I don’t see an exacta paying much, so a trifecta or other exotics might be the way to go. And don’t hesitate to single Nyquist in multi-race exotics.

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