Kentucky Derby Betting Notes
Here are some Kentucky Derby best bets and notes for the big race. Post time is Saturday at 6:34 p.m. eastern.
Workouts, Purse and More
Best timed works so far: 4 furlongs - Mohaymen, 47:40 (among eight at the distance); 5f - Tom's Ready, 59:40 (among 17); 6f - Gun Runner, 1:12.88 (among 3); Lani was the only contender to go 3 furlongs, 37.40; and Nyquist the only one to go a mile, 1:41.01. Outwork, Shagaf, Suddenbreakingnews and Tom's Ready all looked fit and ready to go.
Including all stakes fees the Derby purse will be $2,391,600, if 20 horses start. The winner would receive $1,631,000.
Shagaf may have the best breeding for the 1 1/4-mile distance of the Derby. He's a son of Bernardini, a proven long-distance horse who's offspring have shown their ability to go long.
Lots of impressive looking gallops this a.m. led by Nyquist, Shagaf, Danzing Candy, Outwork, Suddenbreakingnews.— Mike Welsch (@DRFWelsch) May 5, 2016
Trainer Dallas Stewart has a knack for making the Derby board with longshots. Golden Soul went off at 34-1 in 2013 and placed second. The next year he sent off Commanding Curve at 37-1, and that colt placed behind California Chrome. Stewart's Tom's Ready has a morning line of 30-1. There's your exotics hunch.
Keep in mind that Kentucky Derby betting online at SportsBetting.ag offers on-track odds for payouts, rather than morning-line odds.
I really like No. 13 Nyquist, but I'm thinking he'll take a lot of money as the 3-1 morning line favorite, which will make him less attractive as a win bet. So I'll try to beat him with 11 Exaggerator (8-1) to win. Then I'll go with 11, 13 and 14 (Mohaymen, 10-1) in a 3-way exacta box. No. 9 Destin is going up at a nice 15-1, so I'll ladder him. That's $2 to win, $4 to place and $8 to show. A more exotic route would take me to a superfecta or trifecta combination of 5 (Gun Runner, 10-1) 9, 11, 13, 14 and 17 (Mor Spirit, 12-1). My longshot would be either 16 Shagaf (20-1) or 18 Majesto (30-1). Have your own favorite? I've left out 19 Brody's Cause (12-1), 15 Outwork (15-1), 10 Whitmore (20-1), 4 Mo Tom (20-1), and 3 Creator (10-1) on my list - all good horses at good prices.
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