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BC Longshots to Consider

Posted by Webster Washington on 10/25/2015 8:03:14 AM

One thing is for sure about the Breeders’ Cup: there will be upsets. It’s just a matter of finding them. But when you do, the payout is sweet. Below are some longshots that could pull off upsets or at least figure into exotics (exactas, trifectas, superfectas, and multi-race picks). By longshots, I mean horses that I think will go off at 8-1 or better. With the quality of the Breeders’ Cup fields, an 8, 10 or even 15-1 winner isn’t that unusual.

The gate positions will be drawn on Monday, and gate positions play a role in these big fields. Also, some of the horses can still switch races, and handlers of some foreign runners may choose not to ship.

Distaff

With Beholder most likely to take on the boys in the Classic, this field opens up considerably, with about six horses having a chance at the prize.

Likely Favorites

Wedding Toast

Sheer Drama

Untapable

I’m A Chatterbox

Longshot

Got Lucky - I really like Untapable’s chances here, but Got Lucky ran her down in the Grade 1 Spinster Stakes last out, and it was on the same Keeneland 1 1/8-mile course the Distaff will be run on. This 4-year-old filly has come into her own this year, capturing three stakes wins. If Curalina runs here, she’ll have to be figured in, too.

Filly & Mare Turf

Likely Favorites

Legatissimo

Queen's Jewel

Miss France

Longshot

Impassable - She seems to prefer a mile, so her handlers may point her to the BC Mile, which is also on grass. Either way, she’ll be one to watch. An Irish bred, she’s been running in France, winning all three of her races. She came on strong to beat Miss France in her last race, a Group 2 event.

Mile

Likely Favorites

Esoterique

Make Believe

Longshot

Karakontie - The defending champion here took a long layoff to run in just two races this year, both in France and both losses. But those races were in August and September, so you can be sure that trainer Jonathan Pease has been pointing him toward this one all along. I think Pease will have him in top form. Again, if Impassable runs in this one, she should be considered.

Filly & Mare Sprint

Likely Favorites

Cavorting

Stonetastic

La Verdad

Longshot

Taris - This two-time graded stakes winner likes the lead. But she ran out of steam going four wide in a speed fest her last time out. Look for her to wait ‘til late to pour it on this time.

Juvenile

Likely Favorites

Brody's Cause

Greenpointcrusader

Nyquist

Longshot

Exaggerator - Was ambushed by a late-charging Brody’s Cause in the Breeders’ Futurity on this same Keeneland track earlier this month. A win this time wouldn’t be that surprising.

Juvenile Fillies

Likely Favorites

Songbird

Rachel's Valentina

Tap To It

Longshot

Land Over Sea - This member of the A.P. Indy family ran hard in both of her losses to Songbird, and she continues to improve. I think she’s worth an exacta.

Juvenile Fillies Turf

Likely Favorites

Harmonize

Illuminate

Catch A Glimpse

Longshot

Tin Type Gal - Three winners of the G3 Miss Grillo Stakes have won the Juvenile Fillies Turf. This Miss Grillo winner could make it four.

Turf

With the big European cruiser Golden Horn in this one, he’ll be the overwhelming favorite, making the rest of the field longshots. He’d be a good single in your Pick 3 or Pick 4. But if he goes off at 2-1 or better, any of three horses could be matched with him for an exacta or trifecta.

Likely Favorite

Golden Horn

Longshots

Found - Finished second five times, twice to Golden Horn, and he ran extremely strong in one of them. The Aidan O’Brien trainee also won a Group 3 in August.

Big Blue Kitten - At age 7, he’s the senior at the BC, and possibly the best of the American runners here. He’s been in the money in all four races he’s run this year, and last out, he won the G1 the Joe Hirsch at the 1 ½-mile distance of the BC Turf.

The Pizza Man - He beat Big Blue Kitten in the G1 Arlington Million, and he has a G3 win to his credit this year.

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