Super Bowl 47 Betting Advice – The Tale Of Two Quarterbacks

Posted by T.K. Hann on 1/29/2013 5:26:53 PM

When you look at the Niners and Ravens on paper, it becomes somewhat difficult to toss out Super Bowl 47 betting advice because the teams are so frustratingly similar. Both have staunch defenses. Both have reliable running games, albeit different rushing styles. They have very highly rated offensive lines, and playmakers everywhere. I mean, the coaches are even brothers.

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So where is the striking and discerning difference? It doesn’t take a genius to see clearly that it’s at the quarterback position. Joe Flacco has been in the league for five seasons, so we feel like we know the guy. And since there’s little variation in his yearly metrics it makes it easier to assume that the Flacco we’ve watched every Sunday for the past five seasons will show up at Super Bowl 47 and do what he usually does.

Flacco has been nicknamed “Joe Cool”, which is kind of perfect (not as perfect as “Matty Ice” for the irony, but close enough). He never seems hot and bothered. He’s a the kind of player that just lets his performances do the talking. You hardly hear about his personal life. Hell, we don’t even know if he has one.  The Baltimore quarterback isn’t as cool in a trendy way as he is in a more balanced way. He’s calm under pressure in the way Cool Hand Luke was. Good or bad, you’re going to get a guy that has survived scrutiny and give you either a somewhat above average or somewhat below average day.

His stats are pretty even keel. He throws around 500 passes a year, and completes a few over 300. You can usually count on around 3,500 yards from him and he’ll throw 20-25 touchdowns along with 10 or 12 picks (literally). There is nothing that stands out about Joe Cool and there’s nothing that makes him seem elite. But he’s capable, and in the last three playoff games he has been ruthless.

It’s fun to write Super Bowl 47 betting advice that revolves around the idea that Flacco is about to make “the leap”, but there’s five years of data here that suggests he’s not that kind of guy. He can flirt with you on a hot streak and lose all your faith in three mediocre games. Anyone who has had him for a length of time in fantasy football will tell you this.

So what can you expect this Sunday? I’m betting it’s the same quarterback that has made you pay for mistakes without coughing up any of his own. That may not be all-time performance worthy, but it would be good enough to give his Ravens a shot at the Lombardi Trophy.

Then again, we only say this because he’s a five-year veteran. The thing about his opponent this weekend is that he’s basically got a resume that’s three months long. Is that necessarily a bad thing?

It would be malarkey for any Super Bowl 47 betting advice to suggest that Kaepernick will be affected by the two week media onslaught prior to the big game. The idea is that he might be overthinking things, letting the big picture steal his attention away from the finer details that a quarterback needs to be concerned with. After all, Kaepernick came off a two week rest in the divisional round of the playoffs and stomped the Packers with a blistering performance of 444 total yards and 4 touchdowns.

You can define quarterbacks by any term. Guys like Matt Ryan and Tony Romo have a reputation as big game choke artists. The word “genius” has been attached to Peyton’s style of play, while guys like Favre and Roethlisberger deal with being touted as gun slingers. I understand that it’s next to impossible to perfectly quantify the intangibles a quarterback possesses when giving out Super Bowl 47 betting advice, but if there was one word I would pick to describe Kaepernick, it’s swagger.

The guy just oozes it doesn’t he? In both playoff performances, the Niners were tested in the first half. Kaepernick could have been overwhelmed like so many first year starters in post seasons before him. He was in a perfect position to combust when his team needed him most, and it would be hard to blame him. While the Niners defense clamped down on Green Bay and Atlanta in both games, Kaepernick went to work extending leads in the second half with great decisions and big runs along with precise throws.

I don’t have metrics to say that Kaepernick isn’t capable of maintaining this style of play. Not only have his performances been out of this world, he’s also surrounded by one of the most complete and devastatingly talented football teams in existence. Even still, Kaepernick has had to put his team on his shoulders and right now the recaps and game sheets say he did damn well.

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Joe Flacco has literally bored us to death. He has some defenders, but there is nothing sexy about him. It’s just as easy to say that Kaepernick is a flash in the pan as it is to say that he’s the next big thing. The funny thing about a win for either is that it will absolutely validate their place in the current pantheon of quarterbacks. If you’re looking for Super Bowl 47 betting advice that is quarterback specific, you have to ask yourself if you’re willing to bank on the guy that has been building a very respectable career for a half-decade, or the hot hand who has come out of nowhere. Not an easy choice.


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