NFL Expert Week 5 NFL Picks: Washington, Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Green Bay

Posted by D.S. Williamson on 10/2/2012 12:04:30 PM

It's time for the NFL Expert Week 5 NFL Picks! All of the games highlighted below occur early this Sunday, at 1:00 pm ET.

Atlanta survived a scare against the Carolina Panthers in Week 4. They battle Washington on the road this Sunday. Philadelphia tackles the Pittsburgh Steelers while Baltimore throws down against Kansas City on the road and Green Bay visits Indianapolis .

Keep reading for analysis and free picks!

NFL Expert Week 5 NFL Picks

Atlanta Falcons at Washington Redskins

Where: FedEx Field, Landover , Maryland

When: October 7 at 1:00 pm ET

Betting Odds: Atlanta -3 ½

Analysis: 68% of football bettors are all over the Atlanta Falcons in this contest, but there is a glaring, impossible to not see issue that Atlanta might face against the Redskins at FedEx Field on October 7.

The Dirty Birds, as a Saints fan it's hard for me to give that up, are allowing teams to rush for 146 yards per game against them. Atlanta 's defense is fantastic versus the pass, only 207 yards per contest, but against the run, the D has floundered.

That could be a huge problem for Atlanta because the Washington Redskins are the best rushing team in the NFL. The ‘Skins average 175.5 yards per game on the ground. Rookie Alfred Morris has rushed for 376 yards and 4 touchdowns. Rookie QB Robert Griffin III has rushed for 252 yards and 4 touchdowns.

Atlanta is undefeated but they're due for a slip up. The rush defense is suspect while Washington 's rush offense is absolutely fantastic. I'm making the home dog Redskins to beat the spread one of my NFL Expert Week 5 NFL Picks.

Pick: Washington Redskins +3 ½

Philadelphia Eagles at Pittsburgh Steelers

Where: Heinz Field, Pittsburgh , Pennsylvania

When: October 7 at 1:00 pm ET

Betting Odds: Pittsburgh -3 ½

Analysis: I was debating this game with my brother just the other day. His feeling is that Pittsburgh 's defense isn't all that great this season. My feeling is that the Steelers' defense is doing a miraculous job considering that Troy Polamalu and James Harrison have been hurt. Pitt is ranked third against the pass on defense, allowing only 190 yards per game, and fifth in total yards allowed, giving up only 291 per contest.

Those are great numbers and they figure to be better against intra-state rival Philly on Sunday because Pitt goes into this game off of a bye while the Eagles face the Steelers after beating the Giants in an emotional NFC East battle. Pittsburgh is 5 and 1 ATS in their last 6 games following a bye week, 9 and 3 against the spread in their last 3 home games, and 9 and 0 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight up loss.

There are some nice trends with the Eagles, but I just don't see Pittsburgh giving this one up so easily and the number is definitely within reach. I'm going Steelers to cover in the second of four NFL Expert Week 5 NFL Picks.

Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers -3 ½

Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs

Where: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City , Missouri

When: October 7 at 1:00 pm ET

Betting Odds: Baltimore -4 ½

Analysis: It's hard not to make this the bet of the week, right? Baltimore 's offense is averaging 424 yards per game. It's scoring 30.2 points per game and is averaging over 300 yards passing and 114 yards on the ground per matchup.

Kansas City 's defense is atrocious. It's giving up 334 yards per game and a ridiculous 34 points per. Teams are averaging close to 120 yards per on the ground versus the Chiefs. KC is 1 and 4 straight up and ATS on the season. Things aren't looking good. That horrible D gave up 40 points to Atlanta at home and 37 to San Diego at home.

Kansas City is 2 and 5 ATS in their last 7 home games, 1 and 4 ATS in their last 5 versus the AFC and 0 and 6 against the spread in their last 6 games following a double-digit loss.

I keep trying to make a case for the Chiefs to beat the spread in this game, but I can't. Baltimore has to be the play.

Pick: Baltimore Ravens -4 ½

Green Bay Packers at Indianapolis Colts

Where: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis , Indiana

When: October 7 at 1:00 pm ET

Betting Odds: Green Bay -7

Analysis: After facing San Francisco , Chicago , Seattle and New Orleans , the Packers get somewhat of a breather when they tackle Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts this Sunday. The 1 and 3 straight up Colts go into this game off of a bye.

They haven't been horrible, beating Minnesota 23 to 20 and being competitive versus Jacksonville in a 17 to 22 loss, but the Colts are going to have big time issues against the Packers this weekend. Green Bay is no longer a one dimensional team. RB Cedric Benson, although yet to hit the 100 yard mark, has been running well and the Colts' D is allowing 131 yards on the ground per game.

Green Bay 's offense hasn't exactly been on fire, but it's been good enough for a 2 and 2 record and it's only a matter of time before Aaron Rodgers has one of those 400 yards and 4 touchdown passing performances. Green Bay 's D is shutting down the passing attack, allowing only 201 yards per contest.

The only thing that Indianapolis has is a passing attack. 78% of football handicappers are all over the Packers in this one. I'm with the majority.

Green Bay to cover is an easy addition to the NFL Expert Week 5 NFL Picks.

Pick: Green Bay Packers -7

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